Three bloggers’ debate continues

“Are VoIP service providers making a comeback?” is a nice blog entry by the always readable Om Malik and represents the latest in a blogging saga involving three interested parties, a currently intractable debate, lots of numbers, and spin. (Interesting, too, that in the burgeoning field of VoIP, we’re already talking about comebacks.)

Calling himself one of the “naysayers” on competitive voice service providers, Malik calls out analyst / consultant Jon Arnold for being “increasingly bullish on” same. Malik links to an Arnold blog entry which presents a compelling case for the profitability of competitive voice service providers Vonage and Telio (reportedly known as – get this – the “Vonage of Europe.”)

Funnily enough, the lone responding entry to Arnold’s gushy blog entry was from one Moshe Maeir, blogger of “The Flat Planet and A Phone!” Maeir, the president of Flat Planet Phone Company, wrote a similarly gushy entry about the success of Vonage-like firms in a piece entitled, “Vonage results prove - VoIP is a great business!"

Completing the blog triangle, Malik also calls out Maeir in his entry. Says Malik in response to it all: “The slowing subscriber numbers, and increased competition from the bigger, well-funded rivals such as Cable operators and phone companies, is our big concern, but hey that’s just us! We still remain highly skeptical of the current model where the competing on price.”

Malik then refers back to an earlier blog entry of his regarding the “sharp increase in the numbers of CVSPs hitting the dirt” (sic). The entry entitled “Dead VoIP Calling” (Ouch!) is emphatic that “Any VoIP company that is trying to be a voice replacement, is living on borrowed time (and money).”

This declaration and entry (another good one) is based in turn on the work of My VoIP Provider, whom you may remember as caretakers of the My VoIP Graveyard. As My VoIP News previously reported:

Herewith eulogizes the My VoIP Provider in the dark hour of the burying of another corpse in the cemetery of now defunct VoIP services: “Many wannabe internet and technology entrepreneurs think this new phenomenon called VoIP is a guarantee to make money – well think again – at least 85 VoIP services have shutdown in the past 15 months.”

“Dead VoIP Calling” put a negative spin on the magic 85 corpses, but even the undertakers themselves applied a little perspective: “of almost 900 VoIP phone services from around the world, the remainder is currently still active in some capacity.”

“Are VoIP service providers making a comeback?” is the latest in the impasse shared by Malik, Arnold, Maier, and all industry observers. We simply cannot tell at present if in fact competitive voice service providers can succeed. The impressive statistics bandied about by both sides on the “Vini, Vedi, Vonage” debate still haven’t shown the ultimate reality of the service, because that is up to the future. (If you know the answer, please let me in on who will be winning the Super Bowl this year as well.)

Finally, My VoIP Provider recently made a statement that all of us and even the contentious bloggers may agree upon: “The next 12 months will be interesting and it can be expected that the death rate of VoIP services will accelerate.”